There is always a chance that the stock will reverse direction just after it has triggered the stop loss, no matter where a stop loss is placed. We wanted to know if the amount of decline allowed by the stop loss affected the probability of a reversal immediately after the stock is sold. To answer this question, we computed the percentage of incidents (over a period of about 20 years) in which a drop of various specified magnitudes from a recent high was followed quickly by a resumed up-trend, rendering the sale unnecessary.

We discovered that by changing an automatic stop-loss from 8% (below the high) to 9%, we could cut the percentage of unnecessary sales at a loss in half. Further research revealed that after a drop of slightly over 14%, there was another dramatic drop in the number of "whipsaws." A drop of this size was significantly less likely to be recovered by the stock in the near future than for all drops of less magnitude. Therefore, a stop-loss of 15% does make a lot of sense. Sometimes, however, stocks do recover. There is absolutely no way for a person who uses stop-losses to avoid selling some stocks just before they resume an up-trend. Regardless of where the stop-loss is set, this will sometimes happen. It can only "know" what iS (the information that is available at the time of the sale).

When we decide to keep a declining stock, it is because evidence suggests it is the best thing to do under the circumstances at that moment, not a week later or even 5 minutes later. By definition, hindsight never exists in the present. Therefore, we will sometimes be wrong. If we keep the position and we are wrong, our loss might be 15% on that one position. However, we will probably be right more often than if all stocks are automatically sold under a stop-loss discipline that automatically sells on any decline of less than 15%. That does not mean a stock should always be given latitude to drop 15% before it is sold. The patterns of support and resistance (demand and supply) displayed on a chart of the stock are mitigating conditions. We have found that setting the stop-loss at about 15% for long-term investments generally works well as the maximum decline allowed, but many stocks should be sold long before that. For example, if there is obvious strong support 2% below the current price there is no need to set the stop loss at 15%. On the other hand, an investor could make it a rule that no stock is to be purchased if it is reasonable to set the stop loss any more than 15% below the purchase price.

We analyze support and resistance zones for each stock. When StockDisciplines.com traders buy, they buy with reference to a pre-determined stop-loss that is based on their analysis of supply (resistance) and demand (support) zones. They calculate the stop-loss before they buy, and they buy a stock only if a decline to the calculated stop-loss is tolerable in view of the gain expected. The market does not remember or care where anyone buys a stock. However, it does "remember" past regions of support and resistance. Technicians can see the shapes of these regions in the chart of a stock. Remember that a chart is simply a record of the effect of supply and demand forces on stock behavior. Price and volume movements do tell a story.

Here is a simple 5 Step process to help get you started out on the right track..

1. Finding a stock.

This is the most obvious and most difficult step in stock trading. With well over 10,000 stocks to trade in a good guideline is to consider first in which sector you wish to trade in first.Of course you would be looking at a sector that is receiving good media coverage and in which the stocks concerned are going in in value.It stands to reason that you would not be looking too hard at a sector that was experiencing a severe downturn.Once you have decided in which sector you want to invest in, you can then commence to start researching for a stock.It is always best to have a system of rules already in place that will be used before buy each stock.

2. Fundamental Analysis.

A lot of short term traders might argue with the need to do any Fundamental Analysis at all, however knowing the stocks past history and the latest up to date news regarding the stock can be very crucial.A good example would be the earnings season. If you are planning on buying a stock that has missed its earnings target the last 3 quarters, I dare say caution might be very wise.

3. Technical Analysis.

This is the part where the indicators play a part. Stochastics, the MACD, volume, moving averages, RSI, CCI, support levels, resistance levels and all the rest. Whichever batch of indicators you choose, whether they are lagging or leading, may entirely hinge on where you get your information from.Keep it very simple when you first start out, for using too many indicators in the first place is a guarantee to achieve big losses. Get comfortable using one or two indicators first. Learn their intricacies thouroughly, and you'll be on the road to making more profitable trades.

4. Follow your choices.

Once you have committed to a couple of trades you should then start to manage them properly. For instance if the stock is meant to be a short term trade you would then obviously be watching it more closely for your exit signals. If it's a longer term trade you then of course need to set up different time frames such as weekly or monthly checkups on the stock.This effectively frees you up and gives you more time to do other things.You can use this time wisely for keeping up to date with the news, determining your price targets, set stop losses, and keeping an eye on other stocks that you may want to purchase in the future.

5. Keeping an eye on the bigger picture.

This is best achieved by following the particular sector in which you bought your shares .For instance, if you are expecting a share price to go up on an oil stock you purchased and nearly all of the other stocks in oil sector are also rising, then this is cofirmation that you may have made the right decision.